The end of doom, p.35
The End of Doom, page 35
Kloor eviscerates Shiva’s stories: Keith Kloor, “The GMO-Suicide Myth.” Issues in Science and Technology, February 5, 2014. issues.org/30-2/keith/.
“the adoption of GM cotton”: Matin Qaim and Shahzad Kouser, “Genetically Modified Crops and Food Security.” PLoS One, June 15, 2013, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0064879.
“did not find a systematic relation”: Anoop Sadanandan, “Political Economy of Suicide: Financial Reforms, Credit Crunches, and Farmer Suicides in India.” Journal of Developing Areas 48.4 (Fall 2014): 287–307. www.anoopsadanandan.com/PoliticalEconomyofSuicide.pdf.
“male farmer suicide rates have actually declined”: Ian Plewis, “Hard Evidence: Does GM Cotton Lead to Farmer Suicide in India?” The Conversation, March 12, 2014. theconversation.com/hard-evidence-does-gm-cotton-lead-to-farmer-suicide-in-india-24045.
“specific changes in wood chemistry”: Steven Strauss, Stephen P. DiFazio, and Richard Meilan, “Genetically Modified Poplars in Context.” The Forestry Chronicle 77.2 (March/April 2001): 271–276. www.cof.orst.edu/coops/tbgrc/publications/Strauss_2001_The_Forestry_Chronicle.pdf.
most of the world’s wood products: Roger Sedjo, “From Foraging to Cropping: The Transition to Plantation Forestry, and Implications for Wood Supply and Demand.” Resources for the Future, www.fao.org/docrep/003/x8820e/x8820e06.htm.
“wheat-gene tweaked freaks”: Bernd Heinrich, “Revitalizing Our Forests.” New York Times, December 21, 2013.
new biotech variety of rice: Elizabeth Svoboda, “The Future of Farming Is Nitrogen Efficiency.” Fast Company, October 1, 2008. www.fastcompany.com/1007058/future-farming-nitrogen-efficiency.
biotech canola: Arcadia Biosciences website, April 20, 2014. www.arcadiabio.com/products.
salt tolerance, drought tolerance: Andy Coghlan, “Super-rice Defies Triple Whammy of Stresses.” The New Scientist 16 (February 28, 2014): 38. www.newscientist.com/article/dn25147-superrice-defies-triple-whammy-of-stresses.html#.U1KcvFfJGRM.
transfer the C4 photosynthetic pathway: Shanta Karki, Govinda Rizal, and William Paul Quick, “Improvement of Photosynthesis in Rice (Oryza sativa L.) by Inserting the C4 Pathway.” Rice Journal, October 28, 2013. www.thericejournal.com/content/6/1/28/.
heat tolerance: Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Alistair Rogers and Andrew D. B. Leakey, “Targets for Crop Biotechnology in a Future High-CO2 and High-O3 World.” Plant Physiology 147.1 (May 2008): 13–19. www.plantphysiol.org/content/147/1/13.full.
viral disease resistance: Donald Danforth Plant Science Center, “Danforth Center Licenses Technology from Dow Agro Science to Improve Important Staple Crop,” Cassava Mosaic Disease, July 15, 2011. www.danforthcenter.org/news-media/news-releases-10/Danforth-Center-Licenses-Technology-from-Dow-Agro-Science-to-Improve-Important-Staple-Crop.
fungal disease resistance: Beat Keller, Wilhelm Gruissem, Michael Winzeler, Franz Bigler, and Fabio Mascher, Switzerland—Resistance against Fungal Diseases in Wheat—University and ETH Zurich, Agroscope Research Stations ART and ACW, Greenbiotech Briefing, greenbiotech.eu/briefing-paper/public-research-stopped-or-moved-abroad/switzerland-resistance-against-fungal-diseases-in-wheat-university-and-eth-zurich-agroscope-research-stations-art-and-acw/.
bacterial disease resistance: Jonathan D. G. Jones et al., “Elevating Crop Disease Resistance with Cloned Genes.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, April 5, 2014. rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1639/20130087.full.html.
algae that can suck carbon dioxide: D. Ryan Georgianna and Stephen P. Mayfield, “Exploiting Diversity and Synthetic Biology for the Production of Algal Biofuels.” Nature 488 (August 16, 2012): 329–335. labs.biology.ucsd.edu/schroeder/bggn227/2014%20Lectures/Mayfield/Algae%20biofuels%20review.pdf.
enviropigs: Enviropig, University of Guelph, www.uoguelph.ca/enviropig/.
AquAdvantage Salmon: FDA, Center for Veterinary Medicine, United States Food and Drug Administration, Department of Health and Human Services, “Preliminary Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) for AquAdvantage Salmon,” May 4, 2012. www.fda.gov/downloads/AnimalVeterinary/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/GeneticEngineering/GeneticallyEngineeredAnimals/UCM333105.pdf.
environmental organizations oppose this technology: Friends of the Earth News release, “‘Fatally Flawed’ FDA Assessment to Unleash Genetically Engineered Salmon,” December 21, 2012. www.foe.org/news/news-releases/2012-12-fatally-flawed-fda-assessment-to-unleash-genetically-engineered-salmon.
introduced legislation to ban the biotech salmon: Paul Voosen, “House Moves to Ban Modified Salmon.” New York Times, June 16, 2011. www.nytimes.com/gwire/2011/06/16/16greenwire-house-moves-to-ban-modified-salmon-84165.html.
hopes to bring its animal-free milk: Linda Qiu, “Milk Grown in a Lab Is Humane and Sustainable. But Will It Catch On?” National Geographic, October 22, 2014. news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/10/141022-lab-grown-milk-biotechnology-gmo-food-climate/.
dairy cattle emit 17 percent: Dario Caro et al., “Global and Regional Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Livestock.” Climatic Change 126 (2014): 203–216. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1197-x.
organic agriculture as currently practiced: H. L. Tuomisto et al., “Does Organic Farming Reduce Environmental Impacts? A Meta-Analysis of European Research.” Journal of Environmental Management 112 (September 1, 2012): 309–320. www.fraw.org.uk/files/food/tuomisto_2012.pdf; Verena Seufert, Navin Ramankutty, and Jonathan A. Foley, “Comparing the Yields of Organic and Conventional Agriculture,” Nature 485 (May 10, 2012): 229–234. serenoregis.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/nature11069.pdf.
judicious incorporation of two important strands: Pamela Ronald and Raoul Adamchak, Tomorrow’s Table: Organic Farming, Genetics, and the Future of Food. New York: Oxford University Press, 2008, xi.
6. Can We Cope with the Heat?
“a true planetary emergency”: MSNBC, “Gore Takes Warming Warning to Congress,” March 21, 2007. www.nbcnews.com/id/17718399/ns/us_news-environment/t/gore-takes-warming-warning-congress/#.VEBxrBaKX_Y.
“an endless chain of disasters”: Bill McKibben, Oil and Honey: The Education of an Unlikely Activist. New York: Times Books, 2013.
“Our economic system”: Naomi Klein, This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2014.
“the key new text”: Bill McKibben, “An Actual Exit from Climate Hell.” The Dish, August 28, 2014. dish.andrewsullivan.com/author/billmckibbendish/.
“man-made global warming”: John Gizzi, John, “Inhofe Was First to Declare Global Warming ‘The Greatest Hoax.’” Human Events, August 6, 2012. humanevents.com/2012/08/06/inhofe-was-first-to-declare-global-warming-the-greatest-hoax/.
“The scientific reality is”: Marc Morano, “Submitted Written Testimony of Marc Morano, publisher of Climate Depot and former staff of US Senate Environment and Public Works Committee,” Congressional Field Hearing: “The Origins and Response to Climate Change,” May 30, 2013. www.climatedepot.com/2013/05/31/submitted-written-testimony-of-climate-depots-marc-morano-at-congressional-hearing-on-climate-change-the-origins-and-response-to-climate-change/.
“There is no convincing evidence”: Fred Singer in Larry Bell, “Any Global Warming Since 1978? Two Climate Experts Debate This.” Forbes, June 18, 2013. www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2013/06/18/any-global-warming-since-1978-two-climate-experts-debate-this/.
chance that 2014 was warmer: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center, “Global Summary Information—December 2014,” January 2015, www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/2014/12.
“Warming of the climate system”: IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, 2013, www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/; Summary for Policymakers, www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf; Technical Summary, www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_TS_FINAL.pdf.
restated and bolstered: IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, November 2014, www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf.
vast majority of climate researchers: Stacy Rosenberg et al., Climate Change: A Profile of U.S. Climate Scientists’ Perspectives. Institute for Science, Technology, and Public Policy, Texas A&M University, 2009. bush.tamu.edu/istpp/news/story/8/ClimateScientistsPerspectivesClimaticChange.pdf; and John Cook et al., “Quantifying the Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming in the Scientific Literature.” Environmental Research Letters 8.2 (May 15, 2013). iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024.
most mountain glaciers: I. Velicogna, T. C. Sutterley, and M. R. van den Broeke, “Regional Acceleration in Ice Mass Loss from Greenland and Antarctica Using GRACE Time-Variable Gravity Data.” Geophysical Research Letters 41.22 (November 28, 2014): 8130–8137.
sea level could at worst: S. Jevrejeva, A. Grinsted, and J. C. Moore, “Upper Limit for Sea Level Projections by 2100.” Environmental Research Letters 9.10 (October 10, 2014). iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/10/104008/.
global average sea level: Kurt Lambeck et al., “Sea Level and Global Ice Volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111.43 (October 13, 2014). www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/10/08/1411762111.abstract.
40% to 70% reduction in GHG: IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, November 2014, www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf.
“The science is settled”: Andrea Seabrooke, “Gore Takes Global Warming Message to Congress.” NPR, March 21, 2007. www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9047642.
“human activity is responsible”: Robin Bravender, “EPA Chief Goes Toe-to-Toe with Senate GOP over Climate Science.” New York Times, February 23, 2010. www.nytimes.com/gwire/2010/02/23/23greenwire-epa-chief-goes-toe-to-toe-with-senate-gop-over-72892.html.
global temperature has been essentially flat: Ross McKitrick, “HAC-Robust Measurement of the Duration of a Trendless Subsample in a Global Climate Time Series.” Open Journal of Statistics 4 (August 2014): 527–535. www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=49307.
“The observed rate of warming”: John C. Fyfe, Nathan P. Gillett, and Francis W. Ziers, “Overestimated Gobal Warming over the Past 20 Years.” Nature Climate Change 3 (August 28, 2013): 767–769. www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n9/full/nclimate1972.html?WT.ec_id=NCLIMATE-201309.
“that is where models show”: John Christy, personal communication, 2013.
The private research group: Remote Sensing Systems, Climate Analysis, accessed February 11, 2015, www.remss.com/research/climate.
decreases in stratospheric water vapor: Susan Solomon et al., “Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming.” Science 327.5970 (January 28, 2010): 1219–1223. www.sciencemag.org/content/327/5970/1219.
the missing heat is supposedly hiding: Gerald A. Meehl. et al., “Model-Based Evidence of Deep-Ocean Heat Uptake During Surface-Temperature Hiatus Periods.” Nature Climate Change 1 (September 18, 2011): 360–364. echorock.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/trenbert/trenberth.papers/Meehl_Natureclimatechange2011-1.pdf.
a prolonged solar minimum: James Hansen et al., “Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Implications.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11 (2011): 13421–13449. www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/13421/2011/acp-11-13421-2011.html.
Pacific Ocean trade winds: Matthew H. England et al., “Recent Intensification of Wind-Driven Circulation in the Pacific and the Ongoing Warming Hiatus.” Nature Climate Change 4 (February 9, 2014): 222–227. www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n3/abs/nclimate2106.html.
changes in North Atlantic Ocean circulation: Xianyao Chen and Ka-Kit Tung, “Varying Planetary Heat Sink Led to Global-Warming Slowdown and Acceleration.” Science 345.6199 (August 22, 2014): 897–903. www.sisal.unam.mx/labeco/LAB_ECOLOGIA/OF_files/heat%20sink%20led%20to%20global-warming%20slowdown.pdf.
natural variations in Pacific trade winds: Masahiro Watanabe et al., “Contribution of Natural Decadal Variability to Global Warming Acceleration and Hiatus.” Nature Climate Change 4 (August 31, 2014): 893–897. www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/abs/nclimate2355.html.
little chance of a hiatus decade: Nicola Maher, Alexander Sen Gupta, and Matthew England, “Drivers of Decadal Hiatus Periods in the 20th and 21st Centuries.” Geophysical Research Letters 41.16 (August 28, 2014): 5978–5986. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1002/2014GL060527/#Survey.
volcanic particles on global atmospheric temperatures: D. A. Ridley et al., “Total Volcanic Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Depths and Implications for Global Climate Change.” Geophysical Research Letters 41.22 (October 31, 2014): 7763–7769. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061541/abstract;jsessionid=E1B1AB1E8B14434278D7CFC307E735A4.f01t01.
sulfuric acid particles from small volcanic eruptions: Benjamin D. Santer et al., “Observed Multi-Variable Signals of Late 20th and Early 21st Century Volcanic Activity.” Geophysical Research Letters, January 2014; DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062366.
“We do not find that aerosols”: A. Gettleman, D. T. Shindell, and J. F. Lamarque, “Impact of Aerosol Radiative Effects on 2000–2010 Surface Temperatures.” Climate Dynamics, January 2015; www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/andrew/papers/gettelman2015aerorecent.pdf.
man-made aerosols might be responsible: Gavin Schmidt, Drew Shindell, and Kostas Tsigaridas, “Reconciling Warming Trends.” Nature Geoscience 7 (March 2014): 158–160. www.blc.arizona.edu/courses/schaffer/182h/Climate/Reconciling%20Warming%20Trends.pdf.
ocean abyss below 2,000 meters: William Llovel et al., “Deep-Ocean Contribution to Sea Level and Energy Budget Not Detectable over the Past Decade.” Nature Climate Change 4 (October 5, 2014): 1031–1035. www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2387.html.
“The cold waters of Earth’s deep ocean”: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, “NASA Study Finds Earth’s Ocean Abyss Has Not Warmed.” California Institute of Technology, October 6, 2014, www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4321.
upper layers of the southern oceans: Paul J. Duracket et al., “Quantifying Underestimates of Long-Term Upper-Ocean Warming.” Nature Climate Change 4 (October 5, 2014): 999–1005. www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2389.html.
observed global mean surface air temperature: H. Douville, A. Voldoire, and O. Geoffroy, “The Recent Global-Warming Hiatus: What Is the Role of Pacific Variability?” Geophysical Research Letters, January 2015, onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062775/abstract.
thirty-four of the climate models: Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, and Shang-Ping Xie, “Regions of Significant Influence on Unforced Global Mean Surface Air Temperature Variability in Climate Models.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, January 2015, onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD022576/abstract.
why global mean surface temperatures: Tim Lucas, “Climate Models Disagree On Why Temperature Wiggles Occur.” Duke University environment press release, January 26, 2015, nicholas.duke.edu/news/climate-models-disagree-why-temperature-wiggles-occur.
results of comparing the outputs: Jochem Marotzke and Piers M. Forster, “Forcing, Feedback and Internal Variability in Global Temperature Trends.” Nature 517 (January 29, 2015) 565–570. www.nature.com/nature/journal/v517/n7536/full/nature14117.html?WT.ec_id=NATURE-20150129#author-information.
“they don’t get them at the right time”: Piers Forster cited by ReportingClimateScience.com, “Study: Models Not to Blame in Failure to Predict Pause,” January 28, 2015, www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/models-not-to-blame-in-failure-to-predict-pause-says-study.html.
What natural fluctuations: Bryon A. Steinman, Michael E. Mann, Sonya K. Miller, “Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures,” Science, February 27, 2015, 988–991, www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6225/988.
“ocean warming dominates”: IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report, November 2014, 6. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf.
natural internal variability: Judith Curry, “The IPCC’s Inconvenient Truth.” Climate, Etc., September 20, 2013. judithcurry.com/2013/09/20/the-ipccs-inconvenient-truth/.
Researchers from the Pacific Northwest: Steven J. Smith, James Edmonds, Corinne A. Hartin, Anupriya Mundra and Katherine Calvin, “Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change,” Nature Climate Change, March 9, 2015, www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2552.html.
mild El Niño–like conditions: Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, “ESNO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions,” January 19, 2015, www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf.
“most likely value of equilibrium climate sensitivity”: A. Otto et al., “Energy Budget Constraints on Climate Response.” Nature Geoscience 6.6 (June 2013): 415–416. eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/76064/7/ngeo1836%281%29_with_coversheet.pdf.
“is 1.8°C, with 90% C.I.”: R. B. Skeie et al., “A Lower and More Constrained Estimate of Climate Sensitivity Using Updated Observations and Detailed Radiative Forcing Time Series.” Earth Systems Dynamics 5 (March 25, 2014): 139–175. www.earth-syst-dynam.net/5/139/2014/esd-5-139-2014.html.
calculated a transient climate response: Drew Shindell, “Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity.” Nature Climate Change 4 (March 9, 2014): 274–277. www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n4/nclimate2136/metrics.
researchers at Texas A&M University: J. R. Kummer and A. E. Dessler, “The Impact of Forcing Efficacy on the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity.” Geophysical Research Letters 41.10 (May 28, 2014): 3565–3568. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060046/abstract.
the best estimate for climate sensitivity: Nicholas Lewis and Judith Curry, “The Implications for Climate Sensitivity of AR5 Forcing and Heat Uptake Estimates.” Climate Dynamics, September 2014, 1–15. link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2342-y.
