Chaotic neutral, p.37
Chaotic Neutral, page 37
10. Quirk, P. J., “Coping with the Politics of Scandal,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 28, no. 4 (1998): 898–902.
11. Flippen, J. B., Speaker Jim Wright: Power, Scandal, and the Birth of Modern Politics (Austin: University of Texas Press, 2018).
12. Campbell, J. E., “Introduction: Forecasting the 2018 US Midterm Elections,” PS: Political Science and Politics 51, no. S1 (2018): 1–3.
13. Aldrich, J. H., and D. W. Rohde, “The Republican Revolution and the House Appropriations Committee,” Journal of Politics 62, no. 1 (2000): 1–33.
14. Sinclair, B., “Transformational Leader or Faithful Agent? Principal-Agent Theory and House Majority Party Leadership,” Legislative Studies Quarterly (1999): 421–449.
15. See Owens, J. E., “The Return of Party Government in the US House of Representatives: Central Leadership-Committee Relations in the 104th Congress,” British Journal of Political Science (1997): 249–250; and Strahan and Palazzolo, “The Gingrich Effect,” 89–114.
16. Owens, “The Return of Party Government,” 254.
17. Aldrich, J. H., and D. W. Rohde, “The Transition to Republican Rule in the House: Implications for Theories of Congressional Politics,” Political Science Quarterly 112, no. 4 (1997): 541–567.
18. Quoted in Owens, “The Return of Party Government,” 262.
19. 1978 speech by Gingrich, Frontline, PBS, www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/newt/newt78speech.html.
20. The rise of conservative media has been covered voluminously elsewhere, for example, Barker, D., Rushed to Judgment: Talk Radio, Persuasion, and American Political Behavior (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002); and Jamieson, K. H., and J. N. Cappella, Echo Chamber: Rush Limbaugh and the Conservative Media Establishment (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008).
21. Lehmann, C., “The Eyes of Spiro Are upon You: The Myth of the Liberal Media,” Baffler, Spring 2001, 23–38.
22. Stahl, J., Right Moves: The Conservative Think Tank in American Political Culture Since 1945 (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2016).
23. Andrew, R., “War of Ideas,” Stanford Social Innovation Review 3, no. 1 (2005): 18–25.
24. McDonald, L., “Think Tanks and the Media: How the Conservative Movement Gained Entry into the Education Policy Arena,” Educational Policy 28, no. 6 (2014): 845–880.
25. Gillon, The Pact, 122.
26. A prime example is the role quasi-academic think tanks played in elevating climate skepticism from conspiracy theory to a policy position with the outward trappings of legitimacy; see Jacques, P., R. Dunlap, and M. Freeman, “The Organisation of Denial: Conservative Think Tanks and Environmental Scepticism,” Environmental Politics 17, no. 3 (2008).
27. Quoted in “The Politics of Slash and Burn,” New York Times, September 20, 1990.
28. Coppins, “The Man Who Broke Politics.”
29. Quoted in Gillion, The Pact, 141.
CHAPTER 7: THE SENSELESS HABITS OF HIGHLY DEFECTIVE PEOPLE
1. Brady, D. W., et al., “The Perils of Presidential Support: How the Republicans Took the House in the 1994 Midterm Elections,” Political Behavior 18, no. 4 (1996): 345–367.
2. Quoted in Curry, G., and T. Hardy, “Despite Rise in Party Stature, Blacks Fret,” Chicago Tribune, July 16, 1992.
3. Quoted in Grover, W., and J. Peschek, The Unsustainable Presidency: Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Beyond (New York: Springer, 2014), 63.
4. Quoted in Berke, R. L., “Moderate Democrats’ Poll Sends the President a Warning,” New York Times, November 18, 1994.
5. Quoted in Richter, P., “Clinton Hints at Pursuing Less Liberal Agenda,” Los Angeles Times, November 11, 1994.
6. Baer, K. S., Reinventing Democrats: The Politics of Liberalism from Reagan to Clinton (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 2000), 232–235. Clinton would write a thank-you note to From, reading, “It was helpful—at least it was what I really wanted to say.”
7. Osborne, D., “Can This President Be Saved? A Six-Point Plan to Beat the One Term Odds,” Washington Post, January 8, 1995.
8. In Berke, “Moderate Democrats’ Poll Sends the President a Warning.”
9. By Al From, Will Marshall, Bruce Galston, and Doug Ross.
10. See Congressional Research Service Report for Congress, The National Performance Review and Other Government Reform Initiatives: An Overview, 1993–2001, June 4, 2001.
11. Schneider, W., “The Deficit: Budget Balancing; Clinton Infuriates Almost Everyone,” Los Angeles Times, June 18, 1995.
12. Frum, D., “When the Economy Turns,” Weekly Standard, February 1, 1999.
13. Quirk, P., and W. Cunion, “Clinton’s Domestic Policy: The Lessons of a ‘New Democrat,’” in ed. C. Campbell and B. Rockman, The Clinton Legacy (London: Chatham House, 2000).
14. Quoted in Brownstein, R., “Clinton’s Odyssey Toward Center May Offer Lesson for Republicans,” Los Angeles Times, December 2, 1996.
15. McGovern, G., “A Word from the Original McGovernik,” Washington Post, December 25, 1994.
16. Yang, J. E., “Looking Back to Theodore Roosevelt, Gephardt Calls for ‘New Progressivism,’” Washington Post, December 3, 1997.
17. Yang, J. E., and P. Baker, “Gephardt Speech on Party Angers Some Democrats,” Washington Post, December 6, 1997.
18. Schlesinger and Gephardt quoted in Burns, J. M., and G. Sorenson, Dead Center: Clinton-Gore Leadership and the Perils of Moderation (New York: Scribner, 1999), 160.
19. Waddan, A., Clinton’s Legacy: A New Democrat in Governance (New York: Springer, 2001), 20.
20. Steven M. Gillon’s The Pact (New York: Oxford University Press, 2008) makes this point in voluminous detail.
21. Woodward, The Choice (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1996), 17.
22. Quoted in Harris, J., The Survivor: Bill Clinton in the White House (New York: Random House, 2005).
23. Tedlow, R., New and Improved: The Story of Mass Marketing in America (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1996), 372.
24. Paraphrasing a memorable analogy from Mattson, K., “Micro Man,” Guardian, April 11, 2008.
25. Devroy, A., “Clinton’s Holiday from Polls,” Washington Post, July 5, 1997.
26. Just one example: Kornhauser, M. E., “People Don’t Like Paying Taxes. That’s Because They Don’t Understand Them,” Washington Post, April 14, 2017.
27. This summarization appears on Wikipedia and is derived from Department of Treasury, IRS, Publication 596, “Earned Income Credit (EIC),” for use in preparing 2018 tax returns.
28. Smith, M. D., “The Seductive Danger of Symbolic Politics,” Nation, January 21, 2016.
29. For a fuller review of Clinton’s relationship to labor, see Moberly, R. B., “Labor-Management Relations During the Clinton Administration,” Hofstra Labor and Employment Law Journal 24 (2006): 31.
30. Sapiro, V., and D. Canon, “Race, Gender, and the Clinton Presidency,” in ed. C. Campbell and B. A. Rockman, The Clinton Legacy (London: Chatham House, 2000), 194.
31. Walton Jr., H., African-American Power and Politics: The Political Context Variable (New York: Columbia University Press, 1997), 28.
32. Quoted in Sapiro and Canon, “Race, Gender, and the Clinton Presidency,” 176.
33. Marnin, J., “Just 60M Americans Participated in 401K Plans Last Year, but Most Funds Saw Boost,” Newsweek.com, August 19, 2021.
CHAPTER 8: THE MYSTERIOUS WORLD OUTSIDE WASHINGTON, DC
1. Winter, M., All Politics Is Local: Why Progressives Must Fight for the States (New York: Bold Type Books, 2019).
2. New documents and evidence draw out and underscore this position in Plokhy, S., Nuclear Folly: A History of the Cuban Missile Crisis (New York: W. W. Norton, 2021).
3. Shafer, B. E., and W. J. M. Claggett, The Two Majorities: The Issue Context of Modern American Politics (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1995).
4. Hertel-Fernandez, A., State Capture: How Conservative Activists, Big Businesses, and Wealthy Donors Reshaped the American States—and the Nation (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019), 235.
5. Green, E., “The Ideological Reasons Why Democrats Have Neglected Local Politics,” Atlantic, January 4, 2017.
6. Transcript available at https://politics.uchicago.edu/news/entry/watch-genforward-are-campaigns-hearing-millennials.
7. For a view on ALEC’s mammoth influence, see Nichols, J., “ALEC Exposed,” Nation, August 1/8, 2012; or Collingwood, L., S. El‐Khatib, and B. Gonzalez O’Brien, “Sustained Organizational Influence: American Legislative Exchange Council and the Diffusion of Anti‐sanctuary Policy,” Policy Studies Journal 47, no. 3 (2019): 735–773.
8. Mutnick, A., S. Kapos, and O. Beavers, “Illinois Dems Carve Up Liberal Giant-Slayer’s District in New Congressional Map,” Politico, October 29, 2021.
9. For example, Prince, M., “Dan Lipinski Stands Against Nike After It Pulls Patriotic Sneakers,” Daily Caller, July 3, 2019.
10. Eubank, N., and J. Rodden, “Who Is My Neighbor? The Spatial Efficiency of Partisanship,” Statistics and Public Policy 7, no. 1 (2020): 87–100.
11. Winburn, J., The Realities of Redistricting (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2008), 1.
12. Sam Rosenfeld and Daniel Schlozman, in their forthcoming book The Hollow Parties, cover this exhaustively.
13. Title of a 2019 working paper by Rosenfeld and Schlozman.
14. Schlozman, D., and S. Rosenfeld, “The Hollow Parties,” chap. 6 in ed. F. E. Lee and N. McCarty, Can America Govern Itself? (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2019), 120–152.
15. For example, Dickinson, T., “No We Can’t,” Rolling Stone, February 2, 2010.
16. Dickinson, “No We Can’t.”
17. See, for example, Otterbein, H., and A. Thompson, “Down-Ballot Dems Split from Biden on Door-Knocking,” Politico, September 14, 2020.
18. Berman, R., “The Democrats Whose 2020 Goal Is Grander Than the Presidency,” Atlantic, April 17, 2019.
CHAPTER 9: THE BUSH YEARS
1. The dynamics of the third party / independent effects on the outcome are explored in many studies, for example, Hillygus, D. S., “The Dynamics of Voter Decision Making Among Minor-Party Supporters: The 2000 Presidential Election in the United States,” British Journal of Political Science (2007): 225–244; and in nonacademic analysis, Leonhardt, D., “Was Buchanan the Real Nader?,” New York Times, December 10, 2000.
2. See Mebane Jr., W. R., “The Wrong Man Is President! Overvotes in the 2000 Presidential Election in Florida,” Perspectives on Politics (2004): 525–535.
3. Erikson, R. S., “The 2000 Presidential Election in Historical Perspective,” Political Science Quarterly 116, no. 1 (2001): 29–52.
4. All taken from Pomper, G. M., “The 2000 Presidential Election: Why Gore Lost,” Political Science Quarterly 116, no. 2 (2001): 201–223.
5. Jacoby, W., in ed. H. F. Weisberg and C. Wilcox, Models of Voting in Presidential Elections (Redwood, CA: Stanford University Press, 2004).
6. “The Kerry bandwagon had been set in motion by the desire to get behind someone who could defeat Bush, not by a positive attraction of support to the candidate,” in Campbell, J. E., “Why Bush Won the Presidential Election of 2004: Incumbency, Ideology, Terrorism, and Turnout,” Political Science Quarterly 120, no. 2 (2005): 228.
7. Sixties leftover Todd Gitlin may have coined, or at least popularized, the phrase in a 2003 interview: McClure, L., “Anyone but Bush,” Salon, July 20, 2003.
8. Thomas, E., and the Special Project Team, “The Inside Story: How Bush Did It,” Newsweek, 2004.
9. Campbell, “Why Bush Won the Presidential Election of 2004,” 227.
10. Selfa, L., The Democrats: A Critical History (Chicago: Haymarket Books, 2012), 85.
11. Fahey, A. C., “French and Feminine: Hegemonic Masculinity and the Emasculation of John Kerry in the 2004 Presidential Race,” Critical Studies in Media Communication 24, no. 2 (2007): 132–150.
12. For ABC News polling, see Trei, L., “Why Bush Won in 2004,” Stanford News Service, November 17, 2004.
13. Jacobson, G. C., “Polarized Politics and the 2004 Congressional and Presidential Elections,” Political Science Quarterly 120, no. 2 (2005): 199.
14. Recommended readings include Rosenfeld, S., The Polarizers: Postwar Architects of Our Partisan Era (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2018); and Layman, G. C., T. M. Carsey, and J. M. Horowitz, “Party Polarization in American Politics: Characteristics, Causes, and Consequences,” Annual Review of Political Science 9 (2006): 83–110.
15. Jacobson, “Polarized Politics,” 218.
16. See the monograph Poole, K., “Picture of a Polarized Congress,” https://legacy.voteview.com/pdf/ViewpointPolarization.pdf. Ask Keith about trains too.
17. A good review of his politics and career is in Nichols, J., “Do Not Hire This Man,” Nation, December 3, 2020.
18. Bendavid, N., “The House Rahm Built,” Chicago Tribune, November 12, 2006.
19. See Hart, P. T., K. Tindall, and C. Brown, “Crisis Leadership of the Bush Presidency: Advisory Capacity and Presidential Performance in the Acute Stages of the 9/11 and Katrina Crises,” Presidential Studies Quarterly 39, no. 3 (2009): 473–493.
20. “Emanuel Key to Dems’ Success,” Associated Press, December 10, 2006.
21. Pilkington, E., “Pro-gun, Anti-abortion, Fiscally Conservative: Meet the Neo-Dems,” Guardian, November 9, 2006.
22. Gerstein, J., “Emanuel in Line for Big Promotion After Leading Fight for House,” New York Sun, November 9, 2006.
CHAPTER 10: OBAMA COMETH
1. Klein, E., “Could This Time Have Been Different?,” Washington Post, October 8, 2011.
2. Newton-Small, J., “Why the Democrats—and Obama—Forgave Lieberman,” Time, November 18, 2008.
3. For structural economic problems facing the Obama presidency: Epstein, R., “The Economic Consequences of the Obama Reelection: How Stagnation Has Vanquished Growth,” Southern Economic Journal 80, no. 2 (2013): 282–298.
4. Quoted in Gopnik, A., “Liberal in Chief,” Atlantic, May 15, 2016.
5. Berman, A., “Obama: Triangulation 2.0?,” Nation, February 7, 2011.
6. “Triangulation 2.0? Clinton Visits White House,” RealClearPolitics video, December 10, 2010.
7. Foer, F., and N. Scheiber, “Nudge-ocracy,” New Republic, May 6, 2009.
8. All Foer and Scheiber quotes from “Nudge-ocracy.”
9. Meacham, J., “We Are All Socialists Now,” Newsweek, February 6, 2009.
10. Schaller, T. F., “The Democratic Party in the Age of Obama: Yes We Can or No We Can’t?,” New Labor Forum 19, no. 3 (2010).
11. Lind, M., The New Class War (New York: Penguin, 2020).
12. Kurtz, H., “Obama Reps Woo Liberal Elite at Aspen Ideas Festival but Face Angry, Disappointed Supporters,” Daily Beast, June 29, 2011.
13. See “Remarks by the President at the GLACIER Conference—Anchorage, AK,” August 31, 2015, White House, President Barack Obama, obamawhitehouse.archives.gov.
14. Goodell, J., The Water Will Come: Rising Seas, Sinking Cities, and the Remaking of the Civilized World (New York: Little, Brown, 2017), 76.
15. Goodell, The Water Will Come, 81.
16. Goodell, 84.
17. Hayes, C., “Barack Obama: Pragmatist,” Nation, December 10, 2008.
18. Sargent, D., “Postmodern America Didn’t Deserve Jimmy Carter,” Foreign Policy, July 24, 2021.
19. Weinraub, B., “Mondale Staff Worries: Will Voters Pick Him?,” New York Times, December 26, 1983.
20. Broder, D., “Dukakis’ Lessons of Defeat, Victory, and Growth,” Washington Post, June 29, 1987.
21. Germond, J., “Black Leaders Adopt New Pragmatism to Avoid Backlash on Clinton,” Baltimore Sun, September 30, 1992.
22. Goodman, P., “From Welfare Shift in ’96, a Reminder for Clinton,” New York Times, April 11, 2008.
23. “Which Al Gore?,” Economist, August 12, 2000.
24. Sunstein, C., “The Empiricist Strikes Back,” New Republic, September 10, 2008.
25. Seitz-Wald, A., “On Historic Night, Hillary Clinton Favors Pragmatism over Flair,” NBC News, July 29, 2016.
26. Pritchard, S., “Pragmatic Progressivism: How Democrats Can Win the Presidency,” Carolina Political Review, November 20, 2018.
27. Obeidallah, D., “Democrats’ 2018 Midterm Hopes Strengthened by Decline of Liberal ‘Purity Tests,’” NBC News online, March 19, 2018.
28. Viser, M., and A. Linskey, “‘The Art of the Possible’: Biden Lays Out Pragmatic Vision for His Presidency,” Washington Post, March 25, 2021.
29. Walsh, E., “Pragmatic Centrist in Debt to JFK,” Washington Post, June 15, 2003.
30. Comment from Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller, a key architect of the bill, “ObamaCare Is ‘Just Beyond Comprehension,’” March 12, 2013, YouTube video, 0:57, www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTfpkRLrPo8.
31. For example, Kimberly, L., “Opposing Medicaid Expansion,” U.S. News and World Report, December 4, 2015.
32. Garfield, R., A. Damico, and K. Orgera, “The Coverage Gap: Uninsured Poor Adults in States That Do Not Expand Medicaid,” Medicaid, Kaiser Family Foundation, January 21, 2021.
33. Quoted in Beam, C., “Brown and Blue,” Slate, January 20, 2010.
34. James E. Campbell is the most prominent proponent of this “exposure” and “surge and decline” conception of congressional elections; see, for example, Campbell, “The Presidential Surge and Its Midterm Decline in Congressional Elections, 1868–1988,” Journal of Politics 53, no. 2 (1991): 477–487.
35. See the Kaiser Family Foundation tracking poll at www.kff.org/interactive/kff-health-tracking-poll-the-publics-views-on-the-aca.
36. Smiley, T., “A Letter to Obama: In Gratitude and Love,” Time, January 10, 2017.
37. D’Antonio, M., “Unfinished Business (and Failures),” in A Consequential President: The Legacy of Barack Obama (New York: Thomas Dunne Books, 2017), 231–233. The author quickly excuses Obama’s “no-win situation” with race, although the connection is not apparent on economic policy and regulatory issues.
