How tyrants fall and how.., p.26
How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive, page 26
39. Siegbert Schefke, Als die Angst die Seiten wechselte, Transit, 2019, pp. 61 and 62.
40. Ibid., p. 97.
41. Sarotte, The Collapse, p. 53.
42. Hartmut Zwahr, Ende einer Selbstzerstörung, Sax, 2014, p. 90.
43. Bernd-Lutz Lange and Sascha Lange, David gegen Goliath, Aufbau, 2019, pp. 82–4.
44. Zwahr, Das Ende einer Selbstzerstörung, p. 89.
45. See, for example, ibid., p. 90.
46. Ibid.
47. Sarotte, The Collapse, p. 71.
48. Ibid., p. 72.
49. Ibid., pp. 73–4.
50. Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, ‘Linkage Versus Leverage: Rethinking the International Dimension of Regime Change’, Comparative Politics 38, no. 4 (2006), 379–400.
51. This manoeuvre is inspired by the real response of monarchies during the Arab Spring, as outlined in Yasmina Abouzzohour, ‘Heavy Lies the Crown: The Survival of Arab Monarchies, 10 Years after the Arab Spring’, Brookings, 8 March 2021, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/heavy-lies-the-crown-the-survival-of-arab-monarchies-10-years-after-the-arab-spring/
Chapter 7: No Other Option
1. Efraim Karsh, ‘Conflict of Necessity’, Los Angeles Times, 30 March 2003.
2. ‘Assassination’, Encyclopaedia Britannica, 5 December 2023, https://www.britannica.com/topic/assassination
3. Barbara Schmitz, ‘War, Violence and Tyrannicide in the Book of Judith’, pp. 103–19 in Jan Liesen and Pancratius Beentjes (ed), Visions of Peace and Tales of War, De Gruyter, 2010, p. 112.
4. Moses I. Finley, The Ancient Greeks, Penguin, 1977, p. 58 cited in Shannon K. Brincat, ‘ “Death to Tyrants”: The Political Philosophy of Tyrannicide – Part 1’, Journal of International Political Theory 4, no. 2 (2008), 212–40 at p. 215.
5. Aristotle (trans. Terence Irwin), Nicomachean Ethics, Hackett Press, 2000, p. 36 cited in ibid., p. 217.
6. Ibid., pp. 216 and 218.
7. Augustine (trans. R.S. Pine-Coffin), Confessions, Penguin, 1961, p. 207 cited in ibid., p. 220.
8. ‘John of Salisbury’, Stanford Encyclopaedia of Philosophy, 27 April 2022, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/john-salisbury/
9. Cary Nederman, ‘Three Concepts of Tyranny in Western Medieval Political Thought’, Contributions to the History of Concepts 14, no. 2 (2019), p. 9.
10. John of Salisbury (ed. Cary J. Nederman), Policraticus: Of the Frivolities of Courtiers and the Footprints of Philosophers, Cambridge University Press, 1990, p. 210.
11. Nederman, ‘Three Concepts of Tyranny in Western Medieval Political Thought’, p. 9.
12. See Cary J. Nederman, ‘A Duty to Kill: John of Salisbury’s Theory of Tyrannicide’, Review of Politics 50, no. 3 (1988), 365–89.
13. Robert S. Miola, ‘Julius Caesar and the Tyrannicide Debate’, Renaissance Quarterly 38, no. 2 (1985), 271–89 at p. 274.
14. Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken, ‘Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War’, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1, no. 2 (2009), 55–87 at p. 56.
15. John Chin et al., ‘Reshaping the Threat Environment: Personalism, Coups, and Assassinations’, Comparative Political Studies 55, no. 4 (2022), 657–87.
16. The depiction of the assassination is in large part based on Frances Robles, ‘ “They Thought I Was Dead”: Haitian President’s Widow Recounts Assassination’, New York Times, 30 July 2021.
17. Ibid.
18. John Pacenti and Chris Cameron, ‘US Prosecutors Detail Plot to Kill Haitian President’, New York Times, 1 February 2023.
19. Ibid.
20. ‘Haiti President’s Assassination: What We Know So Far’, BBC, 1 February 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57762246
21. Jones and Olken, ‘Hit or Miss?’, p. 62.
22. Chin et al., ‘Reshaping the Threat Environment’.
23. Ibid.
24. Elian Peltier and Raja Abdulrahim, ‘Can Russia Tame Wagner in Africa Without Destroying It?’, New York Times, 29 June 2023.
25. Ibid.
26. See Jason K. Stearns, Dancing in the Glory of Monsters, Public Affairs, 2012, p. 279.
27. Stuart Jeffries, ‘Revealed: How Africa’s Dictator Died at the Hands of his Boy Soldiers’, Guardian, 11 February 2001.
28. Chin et al., ‘Reshaping the Threat Environment’.
29. John Hoyt Williams, ‘Paraguayan Isolation under Dr. Francia: A Re-Evaluation’, Hispanic American Historical Review 52, no. 1 (1972), 102–22 at p. 102.
30. Dalia Ventura, ‘Aimé Bonpland, el brillante botánico opacado por Alexander von Humboldt que se enamoró de Latinoamérica’, BBC, 8 January 2022, https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-59593096
31. Stephen Bell, A Life in Shadow, Stanford University Press, 2010, p. 62.
32. Ventura, ‘Aimé Bonpland’.
33. Johann Rudolf Rengger, Historischer Versuch über die Revolution von Paraguay und die Dictatorial-Regierung von Dr. Francia, J. G. Cotta, 1827, p. 162.
34. Pjotr Sauer, ‘Russian Soldiers Say Commanders Used “Barrier Troops” to Stop Them from Retreating’, Guardian, 27 March 2023.
35. Ivan Nechepurenko, ‘Putin Holds Highly Choreographed Meeting with Mothers of Russian Servicemen’, New York Times, 25 November 2022.
36. Ibid.
37. Andrew Roth and Pjotr Sauer, ‘Putin Talks to Mothers of Soldiers Fighting in Ukraine in Staged Meeting’, Guardian, 25 November 2022.
38. Ibid.
39. Zaryab Iqbal and Christopher Zorn, ‘Sic Semper Tyrannis? Power, Repression and Assassination Since the Second World War’, Journal of Politics 68:3 (2006), pp. 489–501 at p. 492.
40. Dan Williams, ‘After Duvalier: Haiti – A Scary Time for Voodoo’, Los Angeles Times, 7 March 1986.
41. ‘The Death and Legacy of Papa Doc Duvalier’, Time, 17 January 2011.
42. Albin Krebs, ‘Papa Doc, a Ruthless Dictator, Kept the Haitians in Illiteracy and Dire Poverty’, New York Times, 23 April 1971.
43. Williams, ‘After Duvalier’.
44. Homer Bigart, ‘Duvalier, 64, Dies in Haiti; Son, 19, Is New President’, New York Times, 23 April 1971.
45. Rick Atkinson, ‘US to Rely on Air Strikes if War Erupts’, Washington Post, 16 September 1990.
46. ‘Executive Order 12333 – United States intelligence activities’, part 2, section 11, US National Archives and Records Administration, 1981, https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/codification/executive-order/12333.html
47. Frank Church et al., ‘Alleged Assassination Plots Involving Foreign Leaders – An Interim Report’, United States Senate, Report No. 94-465, 20 November 1975, p. 255, https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/94465.pdf
48. Ibid., p. 1.
49. Most of the details on the Blue House Raid are taken from Mark McDonald, ‘Failed North Korean Assassin Assimilates in the South’, New York Times, 17 December 2010.
50. Norimutsu Onishi, ‘South Korean Movie Unlocks Door on a Once-Secret Past’, New York Times, 15 February 2004.
51. Ivan Watson and Jake Kwon, ‘How a Plot to Kill Kim Il Sung Ended in Mutiny and Murder’, CNN, 19 February 2018, https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/18/asia/south-korea-failed-assassination-squad-unit-684-intl/index.html
52. Onishi, ‘South Korean Movie Unlocks Door’.
53. Watson and Kwon, ‘How a Plot to Kill Kim Il Sung Ended in Mutiny and Murder’.
54. Ibid.
55. ‘34 Die as Korean Prisoners “Invade” Seoul’, New York Times, 24 August 1971.
56. Andrei Lankov, ‘How a Secret Plot to Assassinate North Korea’s Leader Spiraled Out of Control’, NK News, 7 August 2023, https://www.nknews.org/2023/08/how-a-secret-plot-to-assassinate-north-koreas-leader-spiraled-out-of-control/
57. Ibid.
58. Onishi, ‘South Korean Movie Unlocks Door’.
59. Ibid.
60. Ibid.
61. Lankov, ‘How a Secret Plot to Assassinate North Korea’s Leader Spiraled Out of Control’.
62. Choe Sang-Hun, ‘South Korea Plans “Decapitation Unit” to Try to Scare North’s Leaders’, New York Times, 12 September 2017.
63. Ankit Panda, ‘South Korea’s “Decapitation” Strategy Against North Korea Has More Risks Than Benefits’, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 15 August 2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/08/15/south-korea-s-decapitation-strategy-against-north-korea-has-more-risks-than-benefits-pub-87672
64. Ibid.
65. Ibid.
66. Megan DuBois, ‘North Korea’s Nuclear Fail-Safe’, Foreign Policy, 16 September 2022.
67. Shane Smith and Paul Bernstein, ‘North Korean Nuclear Command and Control: Alternatives and Implications’, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, August 2022, https://wmdcenter.ndu.edu/Portals/97/Documents/Publications/NK-Nuclear-Command-and-Control_Report.pdf
68. DuBois, ‘North Korea’s Nuclear Fail-Safe’.
69. Ibid.
70. This portrayal of the Venezuelan assassination attempt is based on Christoph Koettl and Barbara Marcolini, ‘A Closer Look at the Drone Attack on Maduro in Venezuela’, New York Times, 10 August 2018.
71. See Chin et al., ‘Reshaping the Threat Environment’.
Chapter 8: Be Careful What You Wish For
1. Ryan Chilcote and Aliaksandr Kudrytski, ‘Belarus Strongman Balances Between Ukraine War, Putin, EU’, Bloomberg, 2 April 2015.
2. Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz, ‘How Autocracies Fall’, Washington Quarterly 37, no. 1 (2014), 35–47 at p. 36.
3. Cited in Sarah J. Hummel, ‘Leader Age, Death, and Political Reform in Dictatorships’, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, working paper, 12 December 2017, https://publish.illinois.edu/shummel/files/2017/12/LeaderDeath171106.pdf
4. Seva Gunitsky, interview with author, 12 January 2023.
5. Rob Matheson, ‘Sudanese Celebrate End of Omar al-Bashir’s 30-year Rule’, Al Jazeera, 11 April 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/videos/2019/4/11/sudanese-celebrate-end-of-omar-al-bashirs-30-year-rule
6. The depiction of this story is largely based on the BBC video made by witnesses filming with their telephones, ‘Sudan’s Livestream Massacre’, BBC, 12 July 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-africa-48956133
7. ‘They Were Shouting “Kill Them” ’, Human Rights Watch, 17 November 2019, https://www.hrw.org/report/2019/11/18/they-were-shouting-kill-them/sudans-violent-crackdown-protesters-khartoum
8. Ibid.
9. ‘Sudan’s Livestream Massacre’.
10. Ibid.
11. Michelle Gavin, ‘Sudan’s Coup: One Year Later’, Council on Foreign Relations, 24 October 2022, https://www.cfr.org/blog/sudans-coup-one-year-later
12. Aidan Lewis, ‘What is Happening in Sudan? Fighting in Khartoum Explained’, Reuters, 13 July 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/whats-behind-sudans-crisis-2023-04-17/
13. Declan Walsh and Abdi Latif Dahir, ‘War in Sudan: Who is Battling for Power, and Why It Hasn’t Stopped’, New York Times, 26 October 2023.
14. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, The Dictator’s Handbook, Public Affairs, 2012.
15. See Barbara Geddes, Joseph Wright and Erica Frantz, How Dictatorships Work, Cambridge University Press, 2018, p. 230.
16. Andrej Kokkonen and Anders Sundell, ‘Leader Succession and Civil War’, Comparative Political Studies 53, nos 3–4 (2019), 434–68 at p. 434.
17. Andrej Kokkonen and Anders Sundell, ‘Delivering Stability: Primogeniture and Autocratic Survival in European Monarchies 1000–1800’, Quality of Government Institute, Working Paper Series (3 April 2012), p. 4.
18. ‘Primogeniture and Ultimogeniture’, Encyclopaedia Britannica, 27 October 2023, https://www.britannica.com/topic/primogeniture
19. Kokkonen and Sundell, ‘Delivering Stability’, p. 6.
20. Xin Nong, ‘Informal Succession Institutions and Autocratic Survival: Evidence from Ancient China’, working paper, 3 March 2022, https://xin-nong.com/files/Informal_Succession_Xin_EHA.pdf
21. Kokkonen and Sundell, ‘Delivering Stability’, p. 4.
22. Anne Meng, ‘Winning the Game of Thrones: Leadership Succession in Modern Autocracies’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 65, no. 5 (2021), 950–81.
23. Erica Frantz and Elizabeth A. Stein, ‘Countering Coups: Leadership Succession Rules in Dictatorships’, Comparative Political Studies 50, no. 7 (2017), 935–62.
24. Chris Hodges, ‘Damascus Journal: Fist May Be of Iron, but is Assad’s Hand Weak?’, New York Times, 17 December 1991.
25. Jason Brownlee, ‘Hereditary Succession in Modern Autocracies’, World Politics 59, no. 4 (2007), 595–628 at p. 618.
26. Eyal Zisser, ‘Does Bashar al-Assad Rule Syria?’, Middle East Quarterly 10, no. 1 (2003), 15–23 at p. 17.
27. Amos Chapple, ‘What’s Changed? Armenia One Year After Revolution’, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 23 April 2019.
28. Ibid.
29. Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan, Why Civil Resistance Works, Columbia University Press, pp. 213–15.
30. See Markus Bayer, Felix S. Bethke and Daniel Lambach, ‘The Democratic Dividend of Nonviolent Resistance’, Journal of Peace Research 53, no. 6 (2016), 758–71.
31. Erica Frantz, Authoritarianism, Oxford University Press, p. 126.
32. George Derpanopoulos et al., ‘Are Coups Good for Democracy?’, Research and Politics 3, no. 1 (2016), 1–7 at p. 2.
33. John J. Chin, David B. Carter and Joseph G. Wright, ‘The Varieties of Coups d’Etat: Introducing the Colpus Dataset’, International Studies Quarterly 65, no. 4 (2021), 1040–51.
34. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, ‘Coup Traps: Why Does Africa have so many Coups d’Etat?’, working paper, Centre for the Study of African Economies, August 2005, https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:49097086-8505-4eb2-8174-314ce1aa3ebb
35. Ibid.
36. See, for example, Clayton L. Thyne and Jonathan M. Powell, ‘Coup d’Etat or Coup d’Autocracy? How Coups Impact Democratization, 1950–2008’, Foreign Policy Analysis 12, no. 2 (2016), pp. 192–213.
37. Cited in Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken, ‘Do Assassins Really Change History?’, New York Times, 10 April 2015.
38. Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken, ‘Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Institutions and War’, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1, no. 2 (2009), pp. 55–87 at p. 70.
39. Giuditta Fontana, Markus B. Siewert and Christalla Yakinthou, ‘Managing War-to-Peace Transitions after Intra-State Conflicts: Configurations of Successful Peace Processes’, Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding 15, no. 1 (2023), 25–47 at p. 25.
40. For a discussion of the risks of losing wars, see Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz, ‘Putin’s Forever War’, Foreign Affairs, 23 March 2023, and Sarah E. Croco, ‘The Decider’s Dilemma: Leader Culpability, War Outcomes, and Domestic Punishment’, American Political Science Review 105, no. 3 (2011), 457–77.
41. See Barbara F. Walter, ‘Conflict Relapse and the Sustainability of Post-Conflict Peace’, World Bank, World Development Report 2011 Background Paper, 13 September 2010, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/3633592d-58d0-5ed5-9394-aea81448f25c/content
42. The depiction of the attack is mostly based on ‘Burundi: The Gatumba Massacre’, Human Rights Watch, September 2004, https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/burundi0904.pdf
43. Ibid.
44. Ibid.
45. Zoeann Murphy, ‘ “He was Alive. They Burned Him”: Congolese Refugees Call for Long-overdue Justice’, Washington Post, 19 September 2014.
46. ‘UN Demands Justice After Massacre of 150 Refugees in Burundi’, New York Times, 16 August 2004.
47. Agathon Rwasa, interview with author, 14 March 2023.
48. ‘Burundi: 15 Years On, No Justice for Gatumba Massacre’, Human Rights Watch, 13 August 2019, https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/08/13/burundi-15-years-no-justice-gatumba-massacre
49. Georges Ibrahim Tounkara, ‘Burundi: Ex-rebel Agathon Rwasa to Run for President’, Deutsche Welle, 17 February 2020, https://www.dw.com/en/burundi-ex-rebel-agathon-rwasa-to-run-for-president/a-52404700
50. Marielle Debos, Living by the Gun in Chad, Zed Books, 2016, p. 103.
51. ‘2003‒2011: The Iraq War’, Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/timeline/iraq-war
52. ‘L. Paul Bremer III’, Encyclopaedia Britannica, 26 September 2023, https://www.britannica.com/biography/L-Paul-Bremer-III
53. L. Paul Bremer, ‘Coalition Provisional Authority Order Number 1’, Coalition Provisional Authority, 16 May 2003.
54. L. Paul Bremer, ‘Coalition Provisional Authority Order Number 2’, Coalition Provisional Authority, 23 May 2003.
55. James P. Pfiffner, ‘US Blunders in Iraq: De-Baathification and Disbanding the Army’, Intelligence and National Security 25, no. 1 (2010), 76–85 at p. 79.
56. Cited in ibid., p. 79.
57. Pfiffner, ‘US Blunders in Iraq’, at p. 76.
58. Bruce R. Pirnie and Edward O’Connell, Counterinsurgency in Iraq (2003–2006), RAND Corporation, 2008.
59. ‘The Gamble: Key Documents’, Washington Post, 7 February 2009.
60. Tom Bowman, ‘As the Iraq War Ends, Reassessing the US Surge’, National Public Radio, 16 December 2011, https://www.npr.org/2011/12/16/143832121/as-the-iraq-war-ends-reassessing-the-u-s-surge
61. Alexander B. Downes and Jonathan Monten, ‘Forced to be Free? Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Rarely Leads to Democratization’, International Security 37, no. 4 (2013), 90–131 at p. 129.
62. For a discussion of intervening states’ motivations, see Jeffrey Pickering and Mark Peceny, ‘Forging Democracy at Gunpoint’, International Studies Quarterly 50, no. 3 (2006), 539–59.
63. Cited in Arthur M. Schlesinger, A Thousand Days: John F. Kennedy in the White House, Houghton Mifflin, 1965, p. 769.
64. See Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and George W. Downs, ‘Intervention and Democracy’, International Organization 60, no. 3 (2006), 627–49 at p. 632.
65. Downes and Monten, ‘Forced to Be Free?’, p. 94.
66. Ibid.
67. Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz, ‘When Dictators Die’, Foreign Policy, 10 September 2015.
